Archive - Unstable Equilibria

Signal Note · Commodities Update The Model Didn’t Blink. We Did. — Post-TACO Update

Thresher Fixed LLC · March 26, 2026

Mar 26 • Bwaj

Signal Note · Rates & Curve: Ugly Auction. The Model Has Been Short for a Reason.

Thresher Fixed LLC · March 24, 2026

Mar 24 • Bwaj

Model Note: The Coherence Signal Called the Cycle. Now the Cycle Has to Earn It.

Thresher Fixed LLC · March 2026

Mar 24 • Bwaj

Curve Steepener. Same Hole. Deeper Water.

Think two to three times before putting on a curve steepener

Mar 24 • Itai Lourie

Model Note: Three Metals, One Question

Three Metals, One Question

Mar 23 • Bwaj

Long Korea/Short Europe: Divergence Compounded

Korea's Energy Moat and Europe's Monetary Trap

Mar 20 • Umit Dhuga, PhD, Itai Lourie, and Bwaj

We Went Long Oil Nine Weeks Ago. Here's the Playback.

This week’s Model Note covers how our framework went long crude oil on January 21st and has held the position for nine weeks through a +75% run.

Mar 20 • Bwaj

0:53

Our Models Went Long Oil on January 21st

Mar 20 • Bwaj

The Anatomy of a Squeeze: Why the Gas-Glut Zeitgeist Was a Trap

On the surface, the current parabolic move in natural gas appears to be a standard geopolitical risk premium — a “war trade” sparked by the escalation…

Mar 16 • Umit Dhuga, PhD

Scenario Analysis 101 - Iran War Room

How to make some macro sense of another Mideast War

Mar 16 • Itai Lourie

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