Welcome to Unstable Equilibria
A window into three minds that look at the multi-asset world from different angles.
Itai comes from twenty-six years in institutional fixed income — rates, structured products, credit. Umit from commodities, carbon, and cross-asset macro. Bharadwaj has deep quantitative modeling experience across asset classes.
The signals we build are orthogonal by design. So are the perspectives behind them.
We will post regularly on topics in commodities, rates, credit, equities and FX with an eye to providing deeper analysis or providing insight into opportunities that might be mispriced. Sometimes we will post about the investment industry and sometimes about idiosyncratic topics or events.
Conviction is overrated.
We do believe a few things:
Systematic beats finger in the wind investing. People are people and biases are unconscious.
Institutional quant has been chronically under deployed. That is changing fast, and it will reprice the industry.
Cross-asset signals exist if you’re built to find them.
Sector and security agnosticism beats specialization for a multi-asset strategy. Specialization is a constraint dressed up as expertise.
AI is repricing productivity and earnings in ways traditional frameworks are systematically missing. The risk is not overexposure. It is underpriced upside.
The forty-year bond bull is over, and most allocators haven’t fully processed what that means. This isn’t about rates being higher. Static fixed income has been perpetually billed as a low volatility diversifier. Neither has been true.
The Fed is structurally trapped. Fiscal dominance is not a theoretical risk, it is the operating reality. When deficit financing crowds the policy transmission channel, the dual mandate becomes incoherent.
Equilibria are unstable. Instability is where opportunity lives.
We will be specific about where we see opportunity — and specific about when we’re wrong.
Itai Lourie, CFA
Twenty-six years in institutional fixed income. Co-CIO, multi-billion dollar fixed income book across rates, structured products, and credit.
Umit Dhuga, PhD
Fifteen years across institutional asset management and hedge funds. Cross-asset: commodities, carbon, semiconductors, rates.
Bharadwaj Kavuluru, MS
Ten plus years in institutional fixed income. Broad cross-asset quantitative modeling experience.
Thresher Fixed LLC
www.thresherfixed.com
The information contained in this publication is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, an offer to sell, or a solicitation to buy any securities, futures, options, or other financial instruments.
The views expressed are the authors’ opinions as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. This publication does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any individual reader. Readers should consult their own financial, tax, or legal advisors before making any investment decision.
Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
The authors may hold positions in securities or instruments mentioned and may change such positions without notice. The authors undertake no obligation to update or correct information contained herein.
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